> Why do you think the used price will drop. I don’t.

The pool of potential buyers is finite.  Anyone interested in buying an
aircraft in this class has had very few options in recent years.  Many
people who would have bought new had few choices, and so (i) either bought
a used aircraft of (ii) bought a more expensive, higher-performance aircraft
(since many of these were still being produced).  Now that production has
been resumed, some of these people will turn to the new market, so demand
for used aircraft will fall.  The question is by how much, not if.  And
distinguishing this effect from other things like inflation, changes in
equipment standards, and the increasing age of the used aircraft pool.

Stefano

>The pool of potential buyers is finite.  Anyone interested in buying an
>aircraft in this class has had very few options in recent years.  Many
>people who would have bought new had few choices, and so (i) either bought
>a used aircraft of (ii) bought a more expensive, higher-performance aircraft
>(since many of these were still being produced).  Now that production has
>been resumed, some of these people will turn to the new market, so demand
>for used aircraft will fall.  The question is by how much, not if.

I disagree. The pool of potential buyers for used Cessnas consists of
anyone who can’t afford something better. Someone who today can afford
to spend $140k for an aircraft isn’t shopping for used 172s; they’re
shopping for used Commanders or Beechs. The entry of new 172s to the
market may affect the sales of used Beechcraft, but it’s not going to
effect the price of an older Skyhawk.

The question is still "if" and, in my opinion, the answer is "no".

———————————————————————–
                    |
George Patterson –  | A bud in the hand is worth two in the busch.
                    |
———————————————————————–